Short and Simple Method of Detecting Shuffle Tracking
By Bill Zender
Article written for Casino Ops Magazine, September 1998
Several years ago I was the key speaker for a chat room discussion on www.rge21.com, a web site maintained by the author of Blackbelt in Blackjack, Arnold Snyder. I fielded numerous questions from a mainly pro-card counter audience with a smattering of casino executives, who, as Arnold would say, were “lurking in the shadows.” One of the questions asked was, “As a casino manager, what do you look for to detect a player who is shuffle tracking?” I was hesitant to reply. First, the answer would be quite lengthy for a chat room session. Second, I wasn’t sure if I wanted to share that information with the large number of Blackjack players who were viewing my replies.
I told the person asking this question to e-mail me if he really wanted to know the answer. This would give me time to type out a proper response and, at the same time, greatly reduce the recipients of the sensitive information. (Note: my stance on answering questions from people on the Internet has always been to be as open as possible. However, if I feel certain information is detrimental to the gaming industry, I will not release it.)
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the term “shuffle tracking” or are uncertain what shuffle tracking is, I will explain its most basic points. Shuffle tracking is different from standard card counting due to the fact that the information gathered is done during the play of hands previous to the shuffle. This information is noted and then tracked through the shuffle. After the cards are cut and play starts, the tracked information is used to determine where certain slugs of high cards or certain combinations of cards are located.
Talking more specifically, there are three major systems of tracking the shuffle. The first system is known as “zone” tracking. In this instance the tracker watches for zones of high value cards, follows them through the shuffle and estimates where they will reappear. By tracking the zones the player knows where the rich sections of the deck are located and bets into them accordingly.
The second system is known as “key card location,” “ace location” or by a myriad of other names. The tracker watches the cards being played until he spots an ace that is preceded on the pick-up by certain key cards. Example: on the pick-up the tracker notices an ace is preceded by a queen of hearts, a queen of spades and a jack of clubs. After the cards are shuffled he watches the cards until he sees a jack of clubs. If, several cards later, he see the queen of spades, and several cards later the queen of hearts, he can assume that the ace will appear within the next several cards. If the tracker can narrow the ace’s appearance down to about one or two cards, he can wager more and gain a substantial edge. Knowing which hand the ace will appear gives the player a 52% edge on any amount wagered on that hand.
The third system is known as “sequential tracking.” In this situation the player records all of the cards as they are picked up by the dealer. It is necessary to use a specially designed computer in concert with this technique. Due to loopholes in certain shuffling procedures, the player will be able to estimate the dealer’s hole card based on the cards that have been exposed during previous play. Some shuffles are so poor the value of subsequent hit cards can also be estimated.
As it turns out, I was contacted by the same individual and I e-mailed him a summary of what indictors I looked for while I was at the Aladdin Hotel and Casino. The e-mail is as follows:
Dear Rick:
Shuffle track (zone tracking) is the same as counting cards except you know where the rich slug of cards are before the cards are dealt and you can play into the rich sections or cut into them. When a zone tracker plays into a rich zone, he bets more and varies his hit-stand-double-split-insurance strategies accordingly. If I see a player moving his money from one to 12 units in a six deck shoe, I will take the time to watch his playing strategies. If he bets six or more units, I watch to see if he stands on 15 and 16 against a 10, aggressively doubles nine versus two, 10 versus 10, 11 versus ace, etc. and I watch to see if he takes insurance. (This strategy applies unless surrender is offered. Surrender is the next biggest indicator of a counter/track play after insurance.) At this point, I don't know what the running count is. However, I can assume if the player has a bigger bet in the circle, it must be a plus count. If I see the correlation of bet and strategy, I first check to see if it’s a straight count play. If it isn't, I check to see if it’s a zone tracking play. At the Aladdin, I knew my six deck games were track-able. (I could make more money with a quicker shuffle then I could ever lose to tracking.) However, my zones were only 12 to 15 cards wide, the shuffle machines notwithstanding. If I saw someone making count plays for one or two rounds, backing off and then making possibly another one or two round count play, I was almost guaranteed that person was zone tracking.
Sequential tracking, the tracking of card series, is harder to detect. Sequential tracking looks like a cross between a marked card play and a hole card play. This depends primarily on the configuration of the sequential tracking team’s computer. Some use it strictly for hole card information. Others use it to predict hit card probabilities. Another indicator is a full table, with the big player in the last seat and small players eating cards in the early seats. At the Aladdin, because of the shuffle in both the six deck shoe and the double decks (again, sans the shuffle machines), sequential tracking could not be used effectively. If I suspected sequential tracking while at another property, I would have the dealer incorporate a couple of strips during the shuffle. I would then look for a reaction from the players (usually the dazed and confused look) and then watch their play during the next deck or shoe.
Key card tracking is the hardest to detect. However, it appears similar to a location play. A player will sit through several hands at a minimum to small wager. He will then leap to larger wagers on two or three hands. Key card tracking lets the player know the approximate location of a tracked ace. Depending on the accuracy of the dealer's shuffle (precise shuffles are good; clump shuffles are bad) and the location on the table of the first indicator card, the player can estimate the appearance of the key card (ace) within one or two cards. This player will typically sit in the first seat and try to control the first three spots. (A female accomplice is always nice.) If I see this pattern once or twice during a shoe, for several shoes, I will have the dealer alter the shuffle. Extra riffles and a strip will usually do the trick. I will again watch for a reaction. In this case it’s usually contempt and bewilderment.
Sincerely,
Bill
One more tidbit of information: many casinos are paranoid about being attacked by shuffle trackers. Some have resorted to long, drawn out shuffles that might prevent profitable tracking, but cost the casinos thousands of dollar in lost revenue due to the decrease in the number of hands dealt. Very few players are capable enough to make money tracking cards in Blackjack. It would take a team of players, most likely with concealed computers and a large bankroll, to be considered any type of threat to the casino’s bankroll. In highly competitive markets the casinos will need to increase their ability to detect trackers instead of relying on costly methods of deterrence.
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