How Much Do You Know About The Toughest Game In The Casino?
By Bill Zender
Written for Casino Ops Magazine, June 1998
The toughest game in the casino for the modern casino executive is the game of 21, bar none. Baccarat has more action. Dice has more wagering. Pai Gow has more rules. But 21 causes more headaches. For example, what’s the house advantage, or casino edge, on the player’s hand at Baccarat? What’s the house advantage on the pass line in Craps? You should be able to answer those questions, right? Now, what’s the house advantage in 21? One percent? Two percent? Twenty percent? It’s nothing that’s etched stone. What rules do you have? How many decks do you use? How good is the average player?
If you can answer those questions, try these on for size. If a player is winning, is it because he’s lucky? Is he cheating? Or, a topic that is really open for debate - is he counting cards? Do you hear your casino manager say things such as, “I don’t know what he’s doing, but he’s doing something!” Is there a time when you wished you had watched that cable program on card counting at 3:00 a.m.?
Below are a series of question about the game of 21 and card counting that have been designed to test your knowledge, or the knowledge of anyone who’s in a position of responsibility concerning 21. The answers are at the end of the questions, along with a scale for grading your results.
Test your knowledge at 21
1.) Based on your knowledge of 21, what is the house advantage (H/A) over the average player in Las Vegas?
A.) There is no advantage over the average player
B.) 1/2%
C.) 1 1/2%
D.) 5%
E.) 20%
2.) What is the approximate H/A when a player uses perfect basic strategy against the multiple deck game (two to six decks)?
A.) There is no advantage over the basic strategy player
B.) 1/2%
C.) 1 1/2%
D.) 5%
E.) 20%
Please answer the following basic strategy questions regarding a six deck game, with either Stand, Hit, Split or Double Down:
A.) 16 vs. 10 D.) 12 vs. 2
B.) A,7 vs. 9 E.) 9 vs. 2
C.) 11 vs. A F.) A,8 vs. 6
3.) If a card counter is playing alone and wants to achieve an average advantage of 1% over the house in a six deck game, 75% deck penetration (sitting through both plus and minus decks) he must use a minimum bet spread of:
A.) 4 to 1
B.) 6 to 1
C.) 8 to 1
D.) 12 to 1
E.) 16 to 1
4.) If a card counter is playing alone and wants to achieve an average advantage of 1% over the house in a double deck game, 75% deck penetration (sitting through both plus and minus decks) he must use a minimum bet spread of:
A.) 4 to 1
B.) 6 to 1
C.) 8 to 1
D.) 12 to 1
E.) 16 to 1
5.) During any average 100 hands dealt from a double deck (75% deck penetration), what number of hands are actually in the player’s favor?
A.) None
B.) 8
C.) 12
D.) 25
E.) 30
F.) 50
6.) During any average 100 hands dealt from six decks (75% deck penetration), what number of hands are actually in the player’s favor?
A.) None
B.) 8
C.) 12
D.) 25
E.) 30
F.) 50
7.) A true card counter will not:
A.) Play for long periods on the same table
B.) Deviate from basic strategy
C.) Split "10" value cards
D.) Take insurance
8.) If you see a player winning at 21 who has been winning for a long period of time by altering his bets, the first thing you, as a pit boss, should do is:
A.) Take some time and analyze the play
B.) "Break" the deck on all big bets
C.) Cut the shoe (or deck) in half
D.) Tell the player that you don't want his play
9.) If you see that a player who is standing by a 21 table and, after a while, suddenly makes a big bet, the first thing you as a pit boss should do is:
A.) Take some time and analyze the play
B.) "Break" the deck
C.) Cut the shoe (or deck) in half from now on
D.) Tell the player that you don't want his play
Answers:
1.) C. 1 1/2%
This rounded-off figure came from a survey Peter Griffin completed back in the 1980s (the actual figure is 1.67%). Griffin wanted to determine approximately how much the average player gives up in basic strategy errors. Griffin did surveys in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and Reno/Lake Tahoe. He found the best players were in AC. They gave up only 1.3% of every dollar wagered compared to LV at 1.67%. This figure may have changed in the last 10 years. Recently, I had to reset the estimated house advantage for Blackjack that I used in my player tracking program. As a result of the difference between theoretical win and actual win, I drop the theoretical house advantage down to 1.2%.
2.) B. 1/2%
This reflects the average multiple deck house advantage with a customer playing perfect basic strategy. This average varies from .32% in the double deck to .60% using six decks. The house advantage also changes depending on the rules of the game.
A.) Hit
B.) Hit
C.) Hit
D.) Hit
E.) Hit
F.) Stand
The above basic strategy questions are all, what I call, borderline situations. If a person is not well-versed in basic strategy for the multiple deck, they won’t answer more than three questions correctly. To be well-versed in basic strategy, even the casino floor supervisor, who watches games everyday, needs to practice the hit, stand, split and double down strategies at least once a month.
9.) E. 16 to 1
10.) A. 4 to 1
These figures came from Arnold Snyder’s work on six deck and double deck frequency of deck advantage for the player. There has been a lot of controversy in the card counting community regarding the size of bet spread needed to win money so that counting is a profitable profession. In some cases size of spread is sacrificed for better play longevity.
11.) D. 25
12.) C. 12
These figures also came from Arnold Snyder’s work on six deck and double deck frequency of deck advantage for the player. This illustrates the limited number of positive opportunities that occur in the multiple deck game and the necessity for increased amount of wager (bet spread) when those limited opportunities exist.
13.) A. Play for long periods on the same table
Most experienced card counters will not play on any one table for a long period of time. The better players will “hit and run” depending on the table conditions and the availability of casinos in that area. The longer they spend at one table, the easier it is for the casino to notice a characteristic that leads to analyzing their play. By the way, splitting 10s against a dealer’s 5 or 6 is a good count play when the deck is fairly rich in 10s and aces.
14.) A. Take some time and analyze the play
15.) A. Take some time and analyze the play
When I ask casino executives these questions during classes and seminars, I get every answer except the correct answer: take some time and analyze the play. Most executives are quick to make snap judgments in order to protect the bankroll, forgetting they may be insulting a good money customer. Question 15 deals with a customer who is standing by the table and jumps in with a big bet. If he is counting, the highest advantage he can expect to achieve is around 5%. This occurs about once every 200 hands in the six deck game. The wager isn’t a sure thing for the player. His advantage of 5% is almost the same as the casinos’ on the game of Roulette. If a player places a wager on black, is the casino guaranteed to win it? Take some time and analyze the play instead of running off a good hunch player.
Give yourself three points for every correct answer on basic strategy, questions 3 though 8, and give yourself five points for every correct answer on the rest. Believe it or not, you can pat yourself on the back for any score over 35. With a total possible score of 63 points, 35 points doesn’t sound so good, however the average number of questions answered correctly usually is about half. In the past I have given similar tests to casino executives and the best scores fall in the 50 to 55 point range.
I give everyone permission to reprint this exam and administer it as you see fit. It’s a great tool for determining someone’s knowledge of the game of 21. During the next several columns I will be discussing topics related to the game of 21, such as the effect of rule changes; how to identify shuffle tracking; and how to maximize your profits at 21. Hopefully I can help limit your alternative late night television so you can enjoy oldie movies instead.
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