Rhythm Rolling: A Dice Control Technique
(This is an article that was printed in the October 2005 issue of the Casino Enterprise Management Magazine)
Christopher Pawlicki (aka Sharpshooter) claims he can beat the casino game of craps legally. He says he has been beating the game for years. Frank Scoblete claims he can beat casino craps, too. He says he has been playing with a team of player who has regularly beaten the game for several years. So has Stanford Wong. Wong, an unquestionable blackjack expert, claims he practiced for several months before he could beat the game consistently. So has the Jean Scott, known as the “Frugal Gamble”. Scott states she has been playing with Scoblete et al and has come away a winner on most occasions. Dominic “The Dominator” LoRiggio told the whole world he can beat casino craps. He did it on the History Channel’s “Breaking Vegas” series. The Dominator claims he can control the dice and influence the games outcomes, and has won thousands over the last several years.
Have these player, several of them respect gambling authors and gaming experts, discovered a method of turning the dice tables on the casino? Can they walk into any casino, play at any crap table, and extract whatever sum of money they want based on some special skill they have developed? Is this dice skill or system capable of severely lowering the casino’s dice profit potential, especially if regular customers awaken to this technique and start applying it in large doses?
These and several other dice controllers are so confident they can control the outcome of dice rolls that they have written books and articles on the subject. Scoblete, author of several books and article, has also established a dice control seminar which turns out hundreds of new dice control or “rhythmic rollers” annually. Is dice controlling becoming the wave of the future? Will rhythm rolling change the game of craps like card counting did to the game of blackjack?
Dice controlling can be described as a method of setting and throwing the dice that will allow the shooter to alter the odds of the game. The shooter alters these odds by reducing the number of rolls results in “seven” after the shooter has established a point. By reducing the probability of seven combinations the shooter can thus gain a mathematical advantage over the casino.
By reducing the number of sevens rolled the shooter will benefit by the higher percent of “numbers” rolled and passes made successfully. Out of thirty six possible rolls of the dice, six combinations result in a seven. In other words; a seven can be expected to appear once ever six rolls of the dice (1:6). Since the house advantage on the pass line bet (without odds) is calculated to be 1.41%, once a point has been established, the rhythm shooter only needs to reduce this ratio to one seven every 6.2 rolls (1:6.2) to nullify any house’s estimated mathematical gain. By reducing the ratio to 1:7 the skilled dice controller not only eliminates the house edge but also can achieve a 4.4% edge over the house.
Brief Description of the Control Technique
The first step in investigating the validity of this technique is to understand what steps the control shooter needs to take when throwing the dice. First, the control shooter will position his or herself either immediately right or left of the stickman. This position shortens the distance to the opposite end of the dice table and reduces the amount of energy used to toss the dice close to the far end of the table. When the dice are thrown they will be tossed straight down the table, not on an angle. Tossing the dice on an angle will decrease the dice chance of landing together evenly.
Second, the dice are set in a specific configuration before they are tossed. While the dice are lying on the table the two cubes are place together with the “ace” face kissing the “six” face. One die is rotated until a hard way combination appears on their top sides (2-2, 5-5, 3-3, or 4-4). This positioning of the dice known as the “hardway set” will help facilitate the elimination of ace-six combinations of seven while increasing the possibilities for eventually rolling 4, 6, 8, and 10’s.
Third, before the dice are thrown they are locked together with a specific grip. One of the grips recommended is performed by positioning three figures in the front of the dice with the pinkie hanging in the air, while the thumb is firmly placed on the back side. When the dice are released they are thrown in a manner that allows them to leave the hand together and rotating with a slight backspin on the ace-six axis.
Fourth, the shooter tries throwing the dice so that they are square to the table, stay together while in the air and rotate evenly together, and don’t wobble or yaw. The shooter wants the dice to land on a face surface or straight edge as much as possible, in an attempt to absorbing most of the energy from their flight both horizontally and vertically, so they will lightly touch the back wall. It is the control shooter’s desire to toss the dice with the least amount of expended energy possible. The dice are supposed to “float” through the air after leaving the shooters hand. If the dice land correctly and with a majority of the flight energy expended upon landing, they should glance lightly off the back wall and roll back towards the center of the table on their ace-six axis with both dice rotating equally.
If the dice act as expected they will rotate several times and stop with both top faces showing two 2’s, 3’s, 4’s, or 5’s; hard totals of 4, 6, 8, or 10. The roll will also finish successfully if one of the dice face rotate plus or minus one face (totals of 5, 6, 8, or 9), or if one dice yaws producing an ace or six side (totals of 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, or 11). Where the shooter runs into trouble is if one dice rotates plus or minus two faces which is known as “double pitching” (totals of 7 only), or both dice yaw to produce totals of 2, 7, or 12.
Naturally these control throws will also married to a specific betting system. This system will take advantage of the increased total of non-seven numbers rolled because of the alleged manipulation of the dice. Beginning control shooters are advised to stick to pass line with odds wagers, and placing the 6 and 8 since those wagers have the lowest house advantage, and can be over come with a lower seven to total roll ratio. Shooters that consider themselves more accomplished are encouraged to make additional place bets on more difficult numbers like 5-9 and 4-10, and use optional dice set combinations which are more effective during come out rolls.
Can the Rhythm/Controlled Throw Technique Successfully Work in the Casino?
The theory seems sound, the mathematics make sense, and the technique is backed by several authors and gambling experts, but is dice control a legitimate strategy for beating casino dice? Although this question cannot be decide one way or the other at this time, there is plenty of room for skepticism.
First, all the information about the success of rhythm throws and dice control are based primarily on anecdotic information. I have yet to see independent studies illustrating a large number of recorded throws and the ratio of sevens (known as “sevens to rolls ratio” or SRR). Stanford Wong, who is known and highly respected for his analytical skills in blackjack, omitted any supportive statistical analysis or records in his book titled, Wong on Dice: Practical Advice Based on Math and Logic (2005). As did Scoblete in his books, Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos (2004), and The Craps Underground (2003); and, as did Sharpshooter (Pawlicki) in his book, Get the Edge at Craps: How to Control Dice (2005).
Secondly, none of the dice control experts address in detail what affect the pyramid wall padding has on their ability to control the dice. Casinos use pyramid padding around the insides of the dice table is to prevent exactly what these experts claim that they can do. The pyramid design will alter controlled dice shots by deflecting the dice in an angled direction. Most of the available articles discuss the need to throw the dice all the way to the far wall. Only Stanford Wong’s book mentions, in very vague terms, the affect of the dice bouncing off the pyramid pattern. Wong advises the shooter not to “hit the pyramids on the fly”, and states if the dice do strike the pyramids it will “add variety” to the result, but “not complete randomness”. Wong then goes on to admit that he doesn’t know “exactly how that happens”.
Third, a consulting group known as Sunzeri Consultants posted an article on their website regarding control dice throws (www.sunzeri.com/TrueCraps/TC-DiceControl.htm). Their position, based on factors regarding the dissipation of mass in motion, concludes that regardless how the dice are thrown or how much back spin is utilized “the force of the throw is over 222 times than the force required to move the die off its trajectory”, and subsequently, dice controls as described cannot be successful. Sunzeri’s conclusion was made without even taking into consideration possible contact with the pyramid padding.
Fourth, if this system has been so successful and there are a number of players earning thousands of dollars on a regular basis, why don’t the gaming figures reflect a financial downturn? Unfortunately, specific game information from New Jersey is limited, but in Nevada, the Las Vegas Strip dice revenues and hold percentages have held a stable level for the past ten years, hovering around $3,700 daily win per table with an average hold percentage of 13%. With the numbers of players supposedly involved in controlling the dice shouldn’t there be indications of a downward trend?
A final thought on rhythm rolling
Unfortunately, there is not enough empirical information available that can either confirm or reject the authenticity of these claims of players being able to alter odds with a controlled dice throw. It also may be quite a while before this mention technique for controlling the outcome of a dice thrown in the casino environment can be properly analyzed and valid decision reached. Based on the information gathered from books, articles, and Internet sites, two opinions can still be drawn as to the validity the dice control techniques.
The first opinion is that it’s a bunch of hooey, with this published technique being just another way to separate players from their money. Someone has developed a system that appeals to the masses and sounds creditable enough to interest players looking for some edge over the casinos. For a small investment anyone interested can sign up to take a dice control seminar that will teach them how to shoot dice and “gain the edge through skill” (www.goldentouchcraps.com). The lack of statistical analysis based on recorded information and the large amount of anecdotic material casts a doubtful eye on the overall success of control dice through combination setting and rhythm throwing.
The second opinion is that their may be some validity to this technique; however the number of player that can successfully scrap a small advantage in the long run is limited to a handful of highly practiced people. With enough practice it’s understandable that a limited number of talented people could get good enough to toss dice to a specific place on the table where they stand a chance to alter the randomness of a few dice throws. Although, possibly successful for a few, at this point I would be reluctant to believe that this technique could be taught to players on a volume similar to the mental skill of counting cards in blackjack.
One of my biggest concerns regarding the above mention issue is the degree of casino and gaming industry backlash based on the publicity dice control has had over the past year. Based on my experience with casinos and game protection procedures, and based on preliminary reactions casino have when presented with non-profitable situations, I’m certain there will be some overreaction directly targeting anyone who sets the dice before their throw or who failed to hit the back wall on an occasional throw. Since any successful dice control attempt would result in a small advantage gain by the shooter at best, it would be extremely prudent for management to take a position of play analysis concerning any suspicious play before taking punitive action; if not to prevent chasing off good players, but also to learn from situation that may legitimately involve professional dice control players.
It may also be prudent for the casino take some proactive steps in discouraging possible dice control shooter. First, the casino needs to make sure their pyramid padding is in good shape. Some casinos never replaced pyramid padding and certain points around the table have been worn down though use over the years. These rounded off points need to be replaced. Second, several articles on dice control have indicated that a hard dice table creates more random bounce. This is due to the die having a tendency to catch on a corner and tumble. Some tables are underlined with several layers of old layouts, and in some instances, thin foam padding. It may be beneficial to the casino to eliminate any additional material that may “soften” the table, especially near the table’s ends. Third, although I wouldn’t recommend “bird dogging” person who occasionally miss the end of the table, I would recommend the casino adhere to the procedure that requires the player to reach the back wall of the table in a friendly and professional manner. There is no doubt that if the dice bounce off proper pyramid padding on the crap table the dice will roll randomly.
Although no solid conclusion can be reached at this time, two opinions do exist and one opinion concerns how a casino should treat this situation. In addition, regardless of which opinion is correct both opinions present the gaming industry with great financial opportunity. If players believe they can beat casino craps by taking seminars or by purchasing books on the subject, it may peak player interest in the dying game of craps. It might peak enough interest to create an increasing market for the game that could be similar to the increased interest we’ve seen in the last several years concerning casino poker. It may even be prudent for the casino industry to embrace the theory of dice control in an attempt to repopulate a dying casino game.
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